IT Markets Beat Expectations in First Half of 2010, But Double-Dip Recession Might Spoil the Party

IT spending rebounded quickly in the first half of 2010, led by capital spending on new hardware infrastructure as businesses, governments, and consumers took advantage of a stabilized economy to work off pent-up demand for new PCs, servers, storage, and network equipment. Emerging markets led the way, with the economic recovery driving a new wave of intense IT investment in countries such as China, India, Brazil, and Russia. As a result, the International Data Corporation (IDC) has raised its projection for annual IT spending in 2010 to $1.51 trillion, representing growth of 6% in constant currency. Hardware spending will increase by 11% to $624 million, while software and services spending is set to rise by 4% and 2% respectively.

Amongst mature economies, the U.S. is set to record IT market growth of 5% this year, recovering from the 4% plunge in 2009. Western Europe, where economic recovery has been slower to materialize, is expected to post IT spending growth of 3% in constant currency, while Japan is on course for growth of 0.5%. The real strength of the IT rebound has materialized in emerging markets, however. Growth in China this year is now expected to reach 21% in constant currency, while other fast-growing IT markets include India (13%), Brazil (14%), and Russia (17%).

This caution is rooted in economic uncertainty, with many economists still concerned that the debt crisis in Western Europe, the waning of government stimulus spending ,and the persistently high levels of unemployment in mature economies, including the U.S., might yet translate into a double-dip recession in the second half of this year or the first half of 2011.

IDC uses a scenario model based on more than 40 years of historical correlations between IT spending and economic growth, along with other inputs, to predict the potential impact of alternative economic scenarios on its projections for IT market growth. Based on a double-dip recession scenario, IT market growth in 2011 could be effectively flat with less than 1% growth (versus the baseline forecast of 6% growth, which is based on more optimistic economic assumptions). Recovery would then be sluggish in 2012 as mature economies, in particular Western Europe, struggled to emerge from the impact of another recession. Emerging markets would recover more quickly.

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