Forrester Lowers Outlook For US IT Purchases In 2009

US business and government purchases of IT goods and services will decrease by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent annual increase previously projected by Forrester Research, Inc.. With the US economy dropping at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in Q4 2008 and most professional economic forecasters reducing their predictions for 2009 US real GDP growth, Forrester has revised its forecast for technology spending in the US to reflect these changes. Forrester expects growth in IT investment will resume in Q4 2009 and gather strength in 2010.

Forrester uses several metrics to determine the health and size of the IT market on a quarterly basis. The data in the new Forrester forecast report focuses on IT purchasing -- how much computer and communications equipment, software, IT consulting and integration services, and IT outsourcing businesses and governments buy from technology vendors. It is one of the most important metrics for evaluating the health of technology vendors.

The new Forrester forecast report makes the following predictions:

Computer equipment will fall even more in 2009. Forrester expects that US business and government purchases of computer equipment will drop by 6.8 percent in 2009, on top of a 4 percent decline in 2008. However, growth is expected to bounce back in 2010 to 7 percent.

Communications equipment demand will shift from 2008 growth to a big cut in 2009. A mixture of enterprise demand for videoconferencing and mobile technologies and telco demand for 3G wireless and broadband equipment kept purchases growing by 3.7 percent in 2008. Both factors will erode in 2009, leading to a 7.8 percent decline, but growth will revive modestly in 2010 to 4.8 percent.

Software purchases will decline slightly in 2009, with license revenues falling. Since about half of software purchases each year are maintenance fees and subscription fees that grow at relatively constant rates, the flat growth of total software purchases means that license revenues will continue to fall in 2009. The picture will improve in 2010, with growth of 6.3 percent.

IT consulting and systems integration services will slip in 2009. Cutbacks in the project portfolio of most companies will lead to a decline of 2 percent in 2009 for IT consulting and systems integration services. The outlook for 2010 remains positive, with 7.4 percent growth expected in 2010.

IT outsourcing growth will remain moderate in 2009 and 2010. IT outsourcing turned out to be weak in 2008, with 2.8 percent growth as economic uncertainty froze potential clients, increased competition and smaller-scale projects cut prices, and the recession caused prospects to wait to see if prices would get even lower. These same forces will continue through the first half of 2009, with revenues starting to improve in the second half of 2009 and in 2010. Growth in 2009 will be small but positive at 2.1 percent, improving to 6.8 percent in 2010.

More information on the IT industry can be found at www.supportindustry.com

IT Groups Aware of Growing High Availability Needs Yet Unsure How To Meet Them

IT organizations know they need more reliable information systems, but 49 percent of them lack the budget for high availability technology, 40 percent don't understand what qualifies as high availability, and more than 80 percent can't quantify the cost of downtime to help make their case for bigger budgets, according to a recent survey by ITIC / Stratus Technologies. Key findings include:

54 percent of IT managers and executives surveyed said more than two-thirds of their companies’ applications require the highest level of availability. Yet, 41 percent would be satisfied with conventional 99 to 99.9 percent availability for their most critical applications, which does not qualify as a high-availability or continuous-availability solution

81 percent said the number of applications that demand high availability has increased in the past two-to-three years.

Of those who said they have been unable to meet service level agreements (SLAs), 72 percent can’t or don’t keep track of the cost and productivity losses created by downtime.

More information on the IT industry can be found at www.supportindustry.com

IDC Identifies Major Disconnect Between Customer IT Financing Requirements and Channel Partner Capabilities

As IT channel providers search for opportunities amid volatile credit and capital markets, the gap between customer IT financing requirements and channel partner capabilities continues to widen. According to new research from IDC, success for channel providers (with $1 to $50 million in annual revenue) hinges on their ability to understand both the overall financial health of the channel as well as the availability of customer leasing and financing, inventory and receivables financing, and operationally oriented financial instruments, such as revolving lines of commercial credit and other business investment funding options.

A recent IDC survey of 43 U.S.-based channel partners with an average of 1,000 employees completed during February 2009 produced a series of research findings that both reinforced preconceived notions of how market volatility affects channel providers as well as research findings that surprised IDC's analysts.

--64% of large channel providers participating in the study reported that their customers have more interest in IT financing and leasing programs than 6 months ago. At the same time, an astonishing 40% of these same channel providers reported that they do not anticipate the need to introduce and educate their customers on the benefits of leasing and financing as a ways to procure needed IT resources

--11% of channel partners surveyed reported that they do not have access to capital to continue "business as usual." When the findings are segmented to examine different sized resellers, nearly 20% of resellers with annual revenues less than $5 million reported they had inadequate access to capital

--Quantifying the whipsaw effect volatile credit markets have had on IT leasing and financing sales programs (which were readily availability 18 months ago), nearly half of channel providers reported having more trouble getting customers financed in the current environment. This percentage rises to 73% among small partners.

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CIOs Can Cut 50 to 80 Percent of Communications Costs by Moving to an Anywhere IT Environment

Yankee Group has demonstrated that CIOs and corporate IT departments of small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) can save more than 50 to 80 percent on costs related to corporate wireless, e-mail and messaging by moving to an Anywhere IT environment.

Using Yankee Group as a model SMB, CTO Jeffrey Breen and Vice President Steve Hilton uncovered more than $150,000 of annual savings opportunities. The new series of reports, "CIO’s Guide to Cost Cutting" advise that SMBs:

Move to the cloud: Moving from traditional Lotus or Microsoft premises-based e-mail application to a cloud-based messaging solution will save a staggering 83 percent (about $64,000) in the first year. During a three-year period, the savings amounts to 88 percent and can total more than $200,000.

Stop reimbursing individual-liable cell phone bills: With corporate wireless phone plans, SMBs stand to save $96,000, or 47 percent in the first year by replacing unwieldy individual-liable plans with a single new corporate liable plan.

Anywhere IT is information technology that allows any user to work from any location, over any device, with the best possible experience that the device and network allow. Anywhere IT moves complexity into the cloud and expands IT into non-traditional areas, driving dramatic growth of the information communications and technology marketplace from $2.2 trillion worldwide today to $4 trillion in just seven years.

More information on the IT industry can be found at www.supportindustry.com.

IT Management Students Aiming for Boardroom, Poll Reveals

Students of the IT Management for Business (ITMB) degree have big ambitions for their future IT careers. In a survey commissioned by leading software provider CA and e-skills UK, 80% of those who took part said they would like to become chief information officers, chief executives or
The international nature of technology holds great appeal. More than a quarter of students - 28% of men and 27% of women - are hoping to spend time working in mainland Europe; while 25% of males set their sights on North America and 15% of females are interested in experience in Asia or Australia.

Students are also attracted by the business relevance of technology. Among their top five aspirations, 90% of students want to solve business problems with IT, 89% want to help make businesses more efficient, and 78% want to use IT to increase innovation.

The students were very positive about the skills and knowledge they were developing as part of their degree: 72% are "confident or very confident" of getting a job after they graduate.

When questioned on communication preferences, just 0.5% of respondents showed a liking for the Twitter social networking and micro-blogging service, while 33% identified email as a firm favorite, followed by the humble phone at 20% and Facebook at 19%.

Key findings include:
--80% of ITMB Students Want CIO and CEO Posts
--90% are Hoping to Spend Time Abroad
--72% are "Confident or Very Confident" of Getting a Job

More information on the IT industry can be found at www.supportindustry.com

Consumer Technology Sales Fall Nearly 4 Percent in 2008

Consumer technology revenue declined 4 percent in 2008 to $112.3 billion, according to leading market research company The NPD Group’s consumer tracking service. The decline follows a 4.5 percent gain in 2007.

Notebook PCs and LCD TVs were the two largest sales categories in 2008 and the claim for the top spot came pretty close. Notebook PCs generated $20.2 billion, but LCD TV sales weren’t far behind. Sales increased 37 percent to $19.9 billion. Desktop PCs, inkjet cartridges, and MP3 players rounded out the top 5.

Best Buy, with its in-store and online sales, once again grabbed the most consumer technology dollars that consumers spent in 2008. Walmart remained in second place. Dell came in third and the now defunct Circuit City’s combined sales put it in the number four spot. Apple made a move into the top 5, just edging out Staples.

Hewlett-Packard took the top spot among the OEMs. Second place was a virtual tie between Apple, Sony, and Dell. Samsung came in fifth.

Dell moving into retail in 2008 had an impact on non-retail sales. Non-retail sales dropped 6 percent in 2008, but if you take out Dell, sales increased 6 percent. Online only retailers had a good year, growing 37 percent to $4.8 billion and retailer Web site sales were also up, gaining almost 3 percent in revenue to $ 7.6 billion. Retail brick and mortar sales declined 3 percent to $83 billion.

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Gartner Highlights Seven Great Concerns for CEOs in 2009

With CEOs facing unprecedented challenges ahead as businesses struggle with the realities of dealing with the economic downturn, Gartner, Inc. has identified the seven greatest concerns for CEOs in 2009.

CEO Issue One: Restructuring

Restructuring is impacting companies in a number of ways from organizational restructuring in the form of layoffs, financial restructuring through deleveraging of financial structure, corporate restructuring via entity consolidation, and finally industry restructuring through the failure and survival of different players and business models.

As the restructuring plan unfolds, CIOs must be prepared to clear the table of current plans and start again, deliver significant cost reduction, deliver significant headcount reduction, cancel some major projects no longer aligned with survival and ensure that all outsourcing partners are viable. At the same time, they will need to deal with unexpected acquisitions and divestitures, manage higher risk taking on projects, work with lower procedural obstacles and stronger CIO powers, and build contingency plans for significant suppliers.

CEO Issue Two: Can't Write Off Fast Enough

The urgent issue of the CEO is to pare the corporate efforts down to those that are central to the company's short-term survival while not killing off its future. CIOs should expect to support peaks of public-relations activity in response to press interest in the condition of the company, as well as travel at short notice to perform due diligence on potential acquisitions. Both talent raids and layoffs will place more pressure on the human resources department and its systems, as will sourcing based on financial reengineering, both of which will add to the IT workload. Above all, CIOs should be aware that restructuring may not be readily apparent, but when it is ready, it will proceed quickly, and a "SWAT team" should be identified to react and respond swiftly.

CEO Issue Three: Loss of Business and Governmental Trust

The institutions that were once counted on to safeguard the economy seem to have failed, and the lack of transparency in the economic system has been exposed. There has been a subsequent loss of trust, as well, amid fears that other unknowns are awaiting. Trust is an intangible element in business but is crucial to transact business. IT can help improve transparency in the way business is done through reputation management, e-discovery and business intelligence. Gartner also expects a strengthening of "data driven" management culture as the risks of moving forward with insufficient data become far less acceptable.

CEO Issue Four: Globalization Instability

Until recently, the onward advance of globalization has been unquestionable. However, the disparity of growth between developed and emerging nations is driving tensions as policy differences become more apparent. At the same time, rapid and large changes in strategies for growth, risk and currency are in need of reappraisal as long-term assumptions about fuel prices and supply logistics change. The keyword for the IT agenda in the face of this high level of uncertainty and risk is flexibility. CIOs need to ensure that their IT operations are ready for the challenges and shifts that are sure to emerge.

CEO Issue Five: New Major Regulation Coming

With the current recession and the crisis of business confidence, CEOs should expect new governmental oversight of their business dealings. Although it is too early to tell where major regulation will be headed, there are some actions that CIOs need to take to ensure they are not caught behind the curve in their industry. These include staying deeply connected to the ebbs and flows of industry regulation and paying attention to tax policy as taxes are another form of regulatory control.

CEO Issue Six: Government as the New Emerging Market

The recession has shifted the growth dynamics of the global economy away from private industry to government. For example, the U.S. Congress recently passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which commits $787 billion to the U.S. economy. This has implications for business and IT, not only in major shifts in key industries, but also in how IT is managed. CIOs should expect their organizations, which may never have sold products or services to a government agency, to retune processes for the sensitivities of government with detailed procedures to avoid fraud and unfairness in bidding for contracts.

CEO Issue Seven: Green Is Not Going Away

While Gartner does not expect green to necessarily be "top of mind" in 2009, it will still have a place at the table as long as CEOs believe it is a useful part of reducing the break-even point of the business. IT vendors and CIOs need to review policies and practices to reflect changing views and to focus on improving environmental sustainability. IT operations probably represent the biggest environmental impact for enterprises that have low total environmental impact, so the CIO may well take the lead on this issue.

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